LPL Research is proud to announce the release of Midyear Outlook 2021: Picking Up Speed.
While the speed can be exhilarating as economic growth accelerates, it can also be dangerous. Our updated outlook is designed to help you navigate the risks and opportunities brought on by the economy’s reopening for the rest of 2021 and beyond. View the interactive digital version here. The highlights in the report include:
- Economy: Speeding Up. The country has reopened and there is still plenty of momentum to extend above-average growth into 2022. LPL Research forecasts 6.25 to 6.75 percent U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021, which would be the best year in decades.
- Policy: Taking a Backseat. The economy was supported through the pandemic by more than $5 trillion in stimulus measures and extraordinary support by the Federal Reserve. Policy will take a back seat in the second half of 2021 as private sector growth replaces stimulus checks.
- Stocks: Gaining Ground. Economic improvement should continue to support S&P 500 Index earnings, which had a stunning first quarter. While valuations remain somewhat elevated, LPL Research thinks they look reasonable after considering still low interest rates and earnings growth potential.
- Bonds: Safety Features. Inflationary pressure and economic improvement may put additional upward force on the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. LPL Research anticipates the 10-year yield finishing 2021 in the range of 1.75 to 2 percent.
In our ceaseless pursuit of making it easier for our Advisors to help their clients, we will also be releasing supplemental materials and additional formats of our Outlook for Advisors to use with their clients. These include: an executive summary, an institutional version, a client letter, a PowerPoint presentation, videos, podcasts, and special webinars (LPL Financial advisors only). LPL Advisors can find all of these materials in one place, all on the Resource Center.
Finally, we would like to thank all of our internal partners who contributed to the development of this piece. Such a detailed and high profile publication requires significant coordination between many different business groups, and we are extremely fortunate to have such talented and committed teammates.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
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