Blog

The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield has been broadly declining since the early 1980s, when it peaked over 15%, but even over that long decline there have been intermittent periods of rising rates. In fact, after periods of...

In probably one of the least surprising economic calls of all time, the Nation Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declared an end to the longest expansion ever and the start of a new recession. As shown in the LPL Chart of...

Financial goals are essential. Setting them will help you to obtain the things you want out of life as well as live the lifestyle you desire, both during your working years and in your retirement. But obtaining these goals isn't always...

Dear Valued Investor: As we look ahead to the summer months, we can’t help but think what a challenging year it’s been so far. At the same time, we’re encouraged by the resiliency and accelerated innovation among US...

In these trying times, even those with veins of steel can find themselves nervous about the market's direction and what it could mean for one's financial future. And the unprecedented nature of the novel coronavirus—and its...

2020 In Charts

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

2020 is only five months old, but in many ways it is one of the most historic years we’ve ever seen. “2020 went from moving along nicely, to seeing the worst recession in a generation and the fastest bear market ever...

The Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its bond exchange-traded funds (ETF) purchases in the week ending May 20 (the most recent data available), adding another $1.5 billion in bond ETFs to its balance sheet, bringing the total holding...

Dear Valued Investor: “Never confuse a single defeat with a final defeat.” — F. Scott Fitzgerald The economic struggles in our country are among the worst we’ve ever seen. In April, a record 20 million people...

There’re plenty of people who think negative interest rates are a good policy. But we don’t really think so at the Federal Reserve. And I think it’s an area of real uncertainty in the central banking world. -Fed...

Should you worry about inflation, deflation, hyperinflation, or stagflation? The coronavirus outbreak, which was first detected in China, has infected millions of people in hundreds of countries and has left global governments,...

Why Gold Will Continue To Shine

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Gold has done quite well so far in 2020, up more than 12% year to date versus the S&P 500 Index which is down about 10%. We started to warm to the yellow metal late last year and continue to think it can serve as a potential hedge in...

Remembering the Flash Crash

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

One of the most historic market crashes ever took place 10 years ago today, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index plunging more than 1,000 points, or 9%, within minutes, only to regain most of the losses by the end of the day....

This year, Teacher's Appreciation Week runs from May 4 to May 8, but rather than being in the classroom, most teachers will be at home, navigating their calling outside the classroom. When the coronavirus hit the United States,...

Silver Lining in Consumer Confidence Data

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April came in 86.9, falling more than 30 points from the prior month. The monthly drop was the biggest for the index since 1973, reflecting the severity of the economic...

To help people suffering from business closures, stay-at-home orders, and other effects of the coronavirus, the government has decided to send out stimulus checks. If your adjusted gross income is up to $75,000 for an individual or...

In an attempt to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the government has shut down numerous businesses throughout the country, and others have drastically cut hours. As a result, over 10 million workers filed for unemployment in March...

Dear Valued Investor: “Life is 10% what happens to you and 90% how you respond to it.” — Lou Holtz, Hall of Fame football coach As the battle against the COVID-19 pandemic continues, how we respond to it will...

In late March 2020, as the number of novel coronavirus cases in the U.S. surged past 100,000, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was passed into law.1 The CARES Act provides around $2.2 trillion in aid to...

What a ride 2020 has been for investors. The fastest bear market ever, now one of the steepest recoveries ever. After being down more than 30% for the year on March 23, this recovery is extremely impressive. In fact, before yesterday,...

Dear Valued Investor: These are challenging times, and this week may be the toughest as we wait for COVID-19 to reach its peak in the United States. As the war against COVID-19 wages on, we continue to be inspired by the tremendous...

Stocks have rallied nicely off the March 23 lows on the back of a bold policy response from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lawmakers in Washington, DC, which was followed by signs that a peak in growth of COVID-19 cases may come soon....

The world continues its battle to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, which now has likely impacted, either directly or indirectly, nearly every person on Earth. This is far more than just a health crisis—this is a human crisis. Its...

Dear Valued Investor: Our everyday lives have changed dramatically over the last few weeks as we work together to minimize the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We know these efforts are necessary, but they also have come at a cost....

The market volatility continues, as the S&P 500 Index has closed either up or down 4% or more for a record 7 consecutive days. With the S&P 500 Index down 30% from the highs, it has officially moved into a bear market. Yesterday, we...

March 12, 2020 We want to share information about the steps we’ve taken to minimize any potential impact to our clients as a result of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) situation and maximize our efforts to keep our team and clients...

March 9, 2020 Dear Valued Investor: The tough times that global markets were experiencing due to the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus) worsened this past weekend as a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia resulted in sharply...

In a move in which the timing was more compelling than the decision itself, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this morning that it unanimously decided to cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) from the 1.5-1.75% range to the...

Here are the facts. Generally speaking, women earn less than men, live longer than men, and often take time out of the workforce to have children and/or to care for an aging parent or sick loved one. The potential consequence of these...

Americans, it seems, are spenders. Personal savings rates are low and many people spend beyond their means. If you're among those Americans who can't seem to save, it might be time to create a budget. A budget allows you to understand...

You should pick investments (and teams) so you win most of your games Sports metaphors and investing are natural pairs. A good way to look at portfolio management is the NCAA March Madness tournament. As with basketball, you should...

Suppose you arrive at your company one morning and discover that a key employee died unexpectedly the night before. Have you ever considered how such a turn of events may affect your company? Along with losing a valued member of your...

Dear Valued Investor: Monday was a tough day in the stock market, with the S&P 500 Index down more than 3% as the number of coronavirus cases reported outside of China jumped. Monday’s losses reversed all of this year’s...

Stock markets modestly lower after renewed coronavirus concern. Apple’s announcement that the coronavirus would impact sales had international markets striking a cautious tone overnight, with the technology sector getting much...

Medicare contains many rules that beneficiaries and their caregivers are required to learn. Perhaps the best way to grasp the program's details is to review the major components of the Medicare program: Parts A, B, C, and D. Medicare...

Many adults are finding that their aging parents are in need of health care assistance. Luckily, there are many options available today to help your parents grow old gracefully, either in their own home or in a facility, and several...

Financial Planning Tips for Small Business Owners

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

When you're a small business owner, you need to pay extra careful attention to both your business and personal finances. Your financial planning strategies should simultaneously encourage the success of your business while also working...

The financial media returned to a favorite topic in the last week, yield curve inversion, but we caution against getting caught up in the building frenzy. The Treasury yield curve inverts when short-term interest rates move above...

Financial Wellness: Establishing an Emergency Fund

Jake Childers, CFP®

Monday, February 10, 2020

First the car broke down, then the dishwasher stopped working, and now the dog is sick. Sometimes the old proverb, "It never rains but it pours," seems to ring a little too true. When you need money to pay large, unexpected bills,...

Thinking about the need and the costs of long-term care is enough to make anyone uncomfortable. But while it's a difficult subject to talk about, it's also a topic that often generates lots of questions and misunderstanding. Consider...

Economic Blog The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moved to within .05% of its recent low on Friday, January 31, approaching the 1.47% mark set back in August 2019. Prospects of stabilizing global growth and progress on trade encouraged...

Market Blog Fears that the deadly coronavirus would spread further around the globe intensified Monday and led to the biggest one-day drop in the S&P 500 Index since October 8, 2019. In fact, it was the first time the index moved 1%...

After factoring in federal income and capital gains taxes, the alternative minimum tax, and possible state and local taxes, your investments' returns in any given year may be reduced by 40% or more. Here are five ways to potentially...

ECONOMIC BLOG As the economic expansion caps its first decade, we thought it’d be a good time to check on LPL Research’s leading indicators in our Recession Watch Dashboard. As you can see in our latest update and in the...

By investing for retirement through your employer-sponsored plan, you are helping to manage a critically important financial risk: the chance that you will outlive your money. But choosing to participate is just one step in your...

Consumer inflationary pressures grew at a healthy, but manageable rate in December 2019. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, rose 2.3% year over year last month, around the fastest pace of the economic...

With the decline of traditional pensions, most of us are now responsible for squirrelling away money for our own retirement. In today's do-it-yourself retirement savings world, we rely largely on 401(k) plans and IRAs. However, there...

In times of crisis, you don't want to be shaking pennies out of a piggy bank. Having a financial safety net in place can ensure that you're protected when a financial emergency arises. One way to accomplish this is by setting up a cash...

The U.S. airstrike that killed the top Iranian military commander last week was a major escalation in Mideast tensions. In fact, it would be difficult to overstate the geopolitical significance of this action. Iran likely will...

Dear Valued Investor: Happy New Year! What a difference a year makes. One year ago the stock market was plunging and came perilously close to ending what has become the longest bull market ever recorded. In December 2018, dropping...

Yield Curve’s the Biggest Fixed Income Story of 2019

Jake Childers, CFP®

Thursday, January 2, 2020

The inverted yield curve was the biggest story of 2019 in the bond market. Historically, when long-term bond yields fall below short-term yields, as the 2- and 10-year Treasury yields did in August, recessions have tended to follow,...

Economic BlogDecember 17, 2019 December has been widely viewed as a strong month for stocks, with this year following suit so far. What many probably don’t realize, however, is the majority of the gains have taken place late in...

Q: What’s the difference between a tax credit and a tax deduction?A: A tax credit reduces your tax dollar for dollar—that is, a $1,000 tax credit actually saves you $1,000 in taxes. By comparison, a tax deduction reduces...

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) final policy meeting of 2019 starts today and will conclude tomorrow with the release of the Fed’s policy statement, updated economic projections, and a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome...

It may be better to give than to receive, but it may be even better to give and see your generosity rewarded. Charitable giving can play a valuable role in your financial and tax strategies. A well-planned gift to charity could provide...

If you donate your car to charity, you may claim a tax deduction for the donation if you itemize your deductions on your federal income tax return. To get started, you'll need to pick a qualified charitable organization, determine the...

Tax planning can be more advantageous when done during the year and well in advance of year’s end.Opportunities may exist for you to minimize tax liability, which could leave more income for you and/or your family.Generally,...

Hindsight is 20/20, but finding clarity in future uncertainty can be fuzzy. AT LPL RESEARCH, as we look forward to the year 2020 and a new decade, some key trends and market signals will be important to watch, including progress on U...

Dear Valued Investor: Turning the calendar from October to November brought more than trick-or-treaters, pumpkins, and leaves to rake. It also brought a wave of important economic updates that delivered more treats than tricks and...

It took nearly 15 months, but the Russell 2000 Index finally broke out to a new 52-week high. On November 25, the Russell 2000 gained an impressive 2.1% to close at its highest level since October 2018. Small caps have lagged their...

“We’re going streaking!” Frank The Tank in Old School As the bull market continues to make new highs, the past few weeks have seen some amazing market streaks. Here are three that have caught our attention. The S&P...

The S&P 500 Index has closed higher five consecutive weeks, making six new all-time highs along the way. There now have been 19 new highs in 2019, tying the number we saw last year. There’s no doubt that this bull market has been...

Your retirement plan may offer you several options for managing your retirement plan assets when you change jobs or retire. Understanding these choices will help you narrow down your choices. Your Options Following are the options that...

So you're about to become a parent. Congratulations! Parenthood may be one of the most rewarding experiences you'll ever have. As you prepare for life with your baby, here are a few things you should think about. Reassess your budget...

At a time when your career is reaching a peak and you are looking ahead to your own retirement, you may find yourself in the position of having to help your children with college expenses while at the same time looking after the needs...

Your retirement plan may offer you several options for managing your retirement plan assets when you change jobs or retire. Understanding these choices will help you narrow down your choices. Your Options Following are the options that...

First the car broke down, then the dishwasher stopped working, and now the dog is sick. Sometimes the old proverb, "It never rains but it pours," seems to ring a little too true. When you need money to pay large, unexpected bills,...

“An object in motion tends to remain in motion along a straight line unless acted upon by an outside force.” Sir Isaac Newton What a year it has been for the bulls. The S&P 500 Index recently made four more new highs, and...

The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, October 30, which would be the third cut this year after nine consecutive hikes. The current fed funds rate target is 1.75–2%, with a 25 basis...

The United Kingdom’s (U.K.) withdrawal from the European Union (E.U.), or Brexit, is stumbling along, and another delay looks increasingly likely. The U.K. Parliament’s “Super Saturday” voting session last...

If you don't have a financial plan, that question may be hard to answer. To achieve financial wellness, you need to define your goals and set a time frame for reaching them. The following steps can help you take control of your...

The debate over the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) withdrawal from the European Union (EU), or Brexit, is reaching another milepost in what could be an action-packed week. Talks between the U.K. government and the EU have entered...

Because you've worked hard to create a secure and comfortable lifestyle for your family and loved ones, you'll want to ensure that you have a sound financial plan that includes trust and estate planning. With some forethought, you may...

“The economy, stupid” — Phrase campaign strategist James Carville used to help Bill Clinton get elected in 1992. As Carville noted ahead of the 1992 election, the recession in 1990 and 1991 was top of mind for many...

Dear Valued Investor: Summer has turned to fall, and there’s already a little chill in the air. Three-quarters of the year is behind us now, and both stock and bond markets have had a strong year so far, although we expect to see...

You can see it just ahead, looming on the horizon -- the holiday season. While children can hardly stand the wait, adults often wish they had a few more months before its arrival. Unfortunately, time does not stop. This year, don't...

U.S. manufacturing activity fell to a 10-year low, dragged down by a weakening global economy. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 47.6 in September, the lowest level since...

Changing jobs is an important decision -- one that many of us are making more often. Once you've decided to switch jobs, your next move is to determine what to do with the money in your former employer's retirement plan. Four Common...

A Two-Week Rollercoaster in Yields

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 34 basis points (0.34%) in the week ending September 13, then gave back half that gain in a 17 basis point (0.17%) slide last week. The benchmark yield...

6 Tips for Wealth & Sanity

Jake Childers, CFP®

Friday, September 20, 2019

And the most important tip of all? Hire a financial advisor. Investing can be stressful, but it doesn’t have to be. If you have a portfolio that was built for you and use the help of a financial advisor, you shouldn’t be...

A New High in CPI Growth

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Consumer inflation has accelerated recently, bucking disinflation and deflation concerns that had permeated financial markets earlier this year. In August, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at least 0.3% for a third...

At some point in your life, you probably have heard about the importance of developing a budget. But, why is a budget so important? Perhaps you simply spend what you must and save whatever’s left over. Or, perhaps you spend all...

Do Major Hurricanes Impact Stocks?

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

First and foremost, our thoughts are with all of those that were impacted by Hurricane Dorian over the Labor Day holiday and all those that are still in its path. Many have asked us what stocks tend to do after a major hurricane hits...

Business investment remains a critical component for this economic expansion. Capital expenditures (capex) drive productivity gains (more output per hour worked), which enables economic growth while keeping inflation contained. That...

One extra curricular activity that every student should master before heading off to college is personal money management. Typically, a student’s day-to-day spending is done on an ad-lib basis, meaning that overspending is the...

"How did it get so late so soon?" -- Dr. Seuss Dr. Seuss's whimsical take on life has been delighting children of all ages for generations. His simple but powerful words continue to resonate today, even in the context of planning for a...

Trade tensions continue to weigh on China’s growth, creating added pressure to reach a trade deal with the United States. Economic reports released last week provided further confirmation that the trade war is continuing to...

Consumer inflation has surged back after a strong quarter of U.S. consumer demand. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Consumer Inflation Picks Up in July, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy prices,...

Good Credit: Teach Your Children Well

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Many parents teach their children the ABCs at a very young age, but do they teach them the ABCs of good credit? At certain points in life, everyone must deal with banks, loans, credit, and finances. You may have learned your lessons...

Is a Trade Deal Still Possible?

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

We’re a week into August, and trade tensions have been the biggest driver of U.S. stocks, as we predicted in our latest Weekly Market Commentary. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and we are getting a heavy dose of it now. On...

Paying for Graduate School

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

Maybe you've decided that graduate school is the path to advancement in your current job or your ticket to a better career. Or maybe you just want to take a few classes to upgrade your skills. Either way, returning to school as an...

Here Comes August, Time to Buckle Up?

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

It has been a great year for stocks. As of July 30, 2019, the S&P 500 Index is up more than 20% so far in 2019. To put that in perspective, since WWII only seven years have been up more than 20% by the end of July, with 1997 being the...

Checking On The Calendar

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

“I’ve been on a calendar, but I’ve never been on time.” Marilyn Monroe We’ve pondered where the S&P 500 Index could go now that it’s near our fair-value target of 3,000. As we discussed in the latest...

Your Vacation: An Invitation to Burglars

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Returning to a burglarized home can be a horrible jolt after a relaxing vacation. Unfortunately, the truth is that an empty home is an easy target for burglars, and peak vacation times show the highest number of break-ins. However,...

The Dow’s Hot July

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Blue chip stocks have been on a tear this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) has risen 2.8% in July, the best performer of the four benchmark stock indexes we track. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, The Dow’s Hot...

Charitable Giving

Jake Childers, CFP®

Monday, July 15, 2019

Charitable giving can play an important role in many estate plans. Philanthropy cannot only give you great personal satisfaction, it can also give you a current income tax deduction, let you avoid capital gains tax, and reduce the...

STOP WASTING MONEY

Jake Childers, CFP®

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Benjamin Franklin once said, “a penny saved is a penny earned.”¹ The modern upgrade to that observation might be that $100 not spent is more like $143.² One way to find the money to meet your spending or saving...

Strong Jobs Rattle Bond Investors

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

The June jobs report was solid. Nonfarm payrolls rose 224,000, according to data released July 5. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Strong June Payrolls Gain Surprises Investors, the rise in jobs last month handily beat estimates...

10-Year Treasury Yields Look Up

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

The 10-year Treasury yield has been flirting with dipping below 2% throughout the later half of June and into the start of July. As our LPL Chart of the Day, Will Trade Truce Help 2% 10-Year Treasury Yield Hold?, shows, the yield has...

Plan Ahead for the Holiday Budget Crunch

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Every year, millions of Americans celebrate the holidays with traditions such as throwing parties and buying gifts for family and friends. Unfortunately, many also participate in a tradition that lands them in debt -- spending more...

A LOOK AT WHOLE LIFE INSURANCE

Jake Childers, CFP®

Friday, June 28, 2019

Whole life insurance remains in force for your whole life, as long as you remain current with your premiums. In exchange for fixed premiums, the insurance company promises to pay a set benefit when the policyholder dies. Whole life...

Midyear Outlook 2019

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

We are pleased to announce the release of the LPL Research Midyear Outlook 2019: FUNDAMENTAL: How to Focus on What Really Matters in the Markets, with investment insights and market guidance through the end of 2019. LPL Research...

Rebalancing Your Portfolio

Jake Childers, CFP®

Friday, June 21, 2019

Everyone loves a winner. If an investment is successful, most people naturally want to stick with it. But is that the best approach? It may sound counter intuitive, but it may be possible to have too much of a good thing. Over time,...

Can Stocks Really Gain 20% This Year?

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

U.S. stocks could have a big year if LPL Research’s forecasts prove correct. All year, we’ve maintained our fair value target on the S&P 500 Index of 3,000, implying that we expect this bull market and economic expansion to...

What's the Best Way to Give Money to Children and Grandchildren?

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

There are several ways you might consider gifting money to your loved ones. In 2017, the IRS allows you to give up to $14,000 annually (or $28,000 if you give jointly with your spouse) in cash, investments, and/or property to each of...

Let's say that at the age of 25, you earned $35,000. If your salary increased at the average historical rate, you'd have earned nearly $2 million in total by the time you were 65.1,2 That might sound like a lot -- until you begin...

Sentiment Stands Strong

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Business confidence surged in May despite renewed uncertainty in the U.S.-China trade dispute. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, “Business Optimism Surges Despite Trade Uncertainty,” the National Federation of...

Congratulations, Graduates! What are your next steps, financially?

Jake Childers, CFP®

Thursday, June 6, 2019

What recent graduates (and their parents) need to think about Spring is here, summer weather has begun (in many places), and graduation time has arrived. Across the country, students are finishing their high school, college, and even...

Stocks’ Losing Streak In Perspective

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

The S&P 500 Index has closed lower four consecutive weeks, its longest weekly losing streak since October 2014. The S&P 500 has closed down five weeks in a row only once since the bull market started in March 2009—a six-week...

Healthy Body, Healthy Pocketbook

Jake Childers, CFP®

Thursday, May 30, 2019

People save for a variety of things in retirement. Some dream of vacation homes in tropical destinations, others plan to spend time with grandchildren and family. Of all the activities you are saving for in retirement, did you know...

Checking In On The Five Forecasters

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

With the bull market 10 years old and the economic cycle about to reach 10 years, the big question is how much longer can it go? To answer this question we will take a closer look at our Five Forecasters for late-cycle warnings....

Another Reason For Bulls To Smile

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

The S&P 500 Index has officially gained each of the first four months of the year for the first time since 2013. This comes on the heels of the best first quarter since 1998. Six straight months in green has been the best monthly win...

Spotting Credit Trouble

Jake Childers, CFP®

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

American households with credit card balances carry an average debt of $16,425.¹ The wise use of credit is a critical skill in today’s world. Used unwisely, credit can rapidly turn from a useful tool to a crippling burden....

HOW TO WORK WITH A FINANCIAL ADVISOR

Jake Childers, CFP®

Thursday, May 16, 2019

A flurry of new investment products, the emergence of global investing, the shift from company-funded pension plans to employee-driven retirement plans (like 401(k) plans), and uncertainty about Social Security have all contributed to...

A Deeper Pullback

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

U.S. stocks’ slide deepened May 13 with the worst one-day sell-off this year since January 3. On Monday, the S&P 500 Index dropped 2.4% amid threats of higher tariffs on all Chinese imports and retaliatory measures from China....

Rising Tide for Diversified Portfolios

Jake Childers, CFP®

Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Diversified investors were the big winners in the first four months of this year. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, both stocks and bonds have posted strong rallies through the first four months of this year, thanks to increased...